Comparison Matrix
Side-by-side competitor comparison across pricing, suites, occupancy, and features.
Primary Comparison Matrix: Direct Competitors (within 10 miles)
Pricing Comparison
| Dimension | Sola Chantilly | Salon Lofts Sterling (x2) | Blue Salon Suites Sterling | Sola Ashburn Riverside | Sola Ashburn Loudoun Stn | Phenix Ashburn |
|---|
| Starting Weekly Rate | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed |
| Est. Rate Range | $250-375/wk | $250-375/wk | $250-375/wk | $250-375/wk | $250-375/wk | $250-375/wk |
| Current Promotions | 2 wks free, custom paint, free insurance yr 1 | Unknown | Unknown | 2 wks free, custom paint, free insurance yr 1 | Unknown | Unknown |
| Lease Terms | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Month-to-month |
| Price Confidence | LOW | LOW | LOW | LOW | LOW | LOW |
Note: Northern Virginia salon suite operators overwhelmingly do not disclose pricing publicly. Rate estimates are based on DC metro market data ($200-$375/week suburban, $300-$900/week urban) and franchise industry benchmarks.
Facility Comparison
| Dimension | Sola Chantilly | Salon Lofts Sterling (x2) | Blue Salon Suites Sterling | Sola Ashburn Riverside | Sola Ashburn Loudoun Stn | Phenix Ashburn |
|---|
| Suite Count | 48 | Unknown (2 locations) | Unknown | 32 | 35 | 50 |
| Distance from South Riding | ~4 mi | ~8 mi | ~8 mi | ~10 mi | ~11 mi | ~11 mi |
| Location Type | Commercial park | Retail plaza | Commercial | Retail plaza | Mixed-use dev. | Mixed-use dev. |
| Operator Type | Corporate-owned | Franchise | Independent | Franchise | Franchise | Franchise |
| Opened | March 2025 | Established | Established | Established | Established | Established |
Amenities Comparison
| Amenity | Sola Chantilly | Salon Lofts Sterling | Blue Salon Suites | Sola Ashburn (both) | Phenix Ashburn |
|---|
| 24/7 Access | Yes | Assumed | Assumed | Yes | Yes |
| WiFi Included | Yes | Assumed | Assumed | Yes | Yes |
| Utilities Included | Yes | Assumed | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Shampoo Bowl | Yes | Assumed | Assumed | Assumed | Assumed |
| Styling Chair | Yes | Assumed | Yes (furnished) | Assumed | Assumed |
| On-site Laundry | Assumed | Unknown | Unknown | Assumed | Yes (free) |
| Video Surveillance | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Yes (24-hr) |
| Guest Lounge | Unknown | Unknown | Yes | Unknown | Unknown |
| Member's Lounge | Unknown | Unknown | Yes | Unknown | Unknown |
| Free Education | Unknown | Unknown | No | Unknown | Yes |
| Maternity Leave | Unknown | Unknown | No | Unknown | Yes |
| Custom Painting | Yes (promo) | Unknown | Unknown | Yes (promo) | Unknown |
| Free Insurance | Yes (yr 1 promo) | Unknown | Unknown | Yes (yr 1 promo) | Unknown |
Business Model Comparison
| Dimension | Sola Chantilly | Salon Lofts Sterling | Blue Salon Suites | Sola Ashburn (both) | Phenix Ashburn |
|---|
| Business Model | National franchise (corporate) | National franchise | Independent | National franchise | National franchise |
| Brand Recognition | HIGH (national) | HIGH (national) | LOW (local) | HIGH (national) | MEDIUM (national) |
| Franchise Support | Yes (corporate HQ) | Yes | N/A | Yes | Yes |
| Local Flexibility | Very limited | Limited | High | Limited | Limited |
| Total Locations (brand) | 700+ nationwide | 100+ nationwide | 1 location | 700+ nationwide | 300+ nationwide |
Secondary Comparison Matrix: Adjacent Market (10-15 miles)
| Dimension | Sola Reston | Salon Nordine Gainesville | MY SALON Suite Manassas | Salon Lofts Gainesville | Salon Lofts Leesburg |
|---|
| Distance from South Riding | 12 mi | 12 mi | 12 mi | 13 mi | 13 mi |
| Suite Count | 63 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
| Est. Weekly Rate | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Not disclosed |
| Operator Type | Corporate-owned | Independent regional | Franchise | Franchise | Franchise |
| Opened | March 2025 | Established | Established | Established | Established |
| Competitive Threat | LOW | LOW | LOW | LOW | LOW |
Competitive Intensity Analysis
By Dimension
| Dimension | Intensity | Rationale |
|---|
| Pricing | UNKNOWN | Lack of public pricing data prevents assessment |
| Location (South Riding) | VERY LOW | Zero operators in South Riding or Centreville |
| Amenities | MEDIUM | Franchise operators offer similar standard packages |
| Service Model | LOW | Franchise standardization leaves room for personalized service |
| Brand/Marketing | HIGH | Dominated by national franchises (Sola, Salon Lofts, Phenix) |
| New Supply | HIGH | Sola added 111 suites in 2025 across two new corporate locations |
| Geographic Coverage | UNEVEN | Sterling/Ashburn well-served; South Riding/Centreville unserved |
Competitive Strength Ranking (Direct Trade Area)
| Rank | Competitor | Overall Strength | Primary Advantage |
|---|
| 1 | Sola Chantilly | STRONG | Closest to South Riding + brand + scale (48 suites) |
| 2 | Phenix Ashburn | STRONG | Largest facility (50 suites) + unique benefits + One Loudoun |
| 3 | Salon Lofts Sterling | MODERATE-STRONG | Two locations prove demand + brand |
| 4 | Sola Ashburn (2 loc.) | MODERATE | Brand + 67 combined suites, but farther away |
| 5 | Blue Salon Suites | MODERATE | Independent model + luxury positioning |
Competitive Gap Analysis
Identified Gaps/Opportunities
| Gap Category | Description | Opportunity Score |
|---|
| Geographic Gap | Zero operators in South Riding or Centreville (100K+ combined pop.) | VERY HIGH |
| Independent Alternative | Only 2 of 11 operators are independent; market lacks local, personalized option | HIGH |
| Centreville Gap | 71,885 residents with no salon suites within their community | HIGH |
| Service Differentiation | Franchise operators deliver standardized experience; room for concierge model | MEDIUM-HIGH |
| Pricing Transparency | No operator publicly discloses pricing; transparency could be a differentiator | MEDIUM |
| Suite Variety | Most operators offer standard single-suite configurations | MEDIUM |
Competitive Advantages Available to New Entrant
| Advantage Type | How to Achieve | Difficulty |
|---|
| Location Monopoly | Open in South Riding (no existing competitors) | MEDIUM (real estate dependent) |
| Independent Flexibility | No franchise fees = price/reinvestment advantage | BUILT-IN |
| Personalized Service | Owner-operated concierge model vs. franchise standardization | LOW |
| Premium Quality | Leverage contractor relationships for superior build-out | LOW |
| Price Transparency | Publish pricing when competitors do not | LOW |
| Community Focus | Local marketing to South Riding and Centreville residents | LOW |
Market Supply and Demand Analysis
Supply Calculation
Direct Trade Area (10-mile radius from South Riding)
| Competitor | Location | Known Suites | Occupancy | Confidence |
|---|
| Sola Salon Studios | Chantilly (4 mi) | 48 | Unknown (new) | MEDIUM |
| Salon Lofts (x2) | Sterling (8 mi) | Unknown | Unknown | LOW |
| Blue Salon Suites | Sterling (8 mi) | Unknown | Unknown | LOW |
| Sola Salon Studios | Ashburn Riverside (10 mi) | 32 | Unknown | MEDIUM |
| Sola Salon Studios | Ashburn Loudoun Stn (11 mi) | 35 | Unknown | MEDIUM |
| Phenix Salon Suites | Ashburn (11 mi) | 50 | Unknown | MEDIUM |
| DIRECT TOTAL | | 165+ known | Unknown | |
Note: Salon Lofts Sterling and Blue Salon Suites suite counts are unknown, so actual direct trade area supply is likely 200+ suites.
Adjacent Market (10-15 mile radius)
| Competitor | Location | Known Suites | Occupancy | Confidence |
|---|
| Sola Salon Studios | Reston (12 mi) | 63 | Unknown (new) | MEDIUM |
| Salon Nordine | Gainesville (12 mi) | Unknown | Unknown | LOW |
| MY SALON Suite | Manassas (12 mi) | Unknown | Unknown | LOW |
| Salon Lofts | Gainesville (13 mi) | Unknown | Unknown | LOW |
| Salon Lofts | Leesburg (13 mi) | Unknown | Unknown | LOW |
| ADJACENT TOTAL | | 63+ known | Unknown | |
Combined Regional Supply
| Area | Known Suites | Operators | Coverage Assessment |
|---|
| Direct Trade Area | 165+ | 6 | Clustered in Chantilly/Sterling/Ashburn |
| Adjacent Market | 63+ | 5 | Scattered across Reston/Gainesville/Manassas/Leesburg |
| COMBINED | 228+ | 11 | South Riding/Centreville is the clear gap |
Demand Indicators
Demand Signals
| Signal | Evidence | Implication |
|---|
| Sola Corporate Investment | Two corporate-owned locations opened March 2025 (111 suites) | Sola's own data shows unmet demand in NoVA |
| Salon Lofts Density | 4 locations within 15 miles | Proven demand supports multiple facilities |
| Phenix Scale | 50 suites at One Loudoun | Large facility suggests strong demand |
| Salon Lofts Cascades Expansion | Two locations in same plaza | Demand exceeded first facility's capacity |
| Geographic Gap | Zero operators in South Riding/Centreville (100K+ pop.) | Underserved population with high income |
| South Riding Demographics | $190K median HH income | Affluent area supports premium services |
Demand Sizing Estimate
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|
| South Riding population | ~30,000 | Census data |
| Centreville population | 71,885 | Census data |
| Combined underserved population | ~100,000+ | South Riding + Centreville |
| Licensed beauty professionals (est.) | ~400-600 | 0.4-0.6% of population |
| Suite rental candidate rate | 6-12% | Industry benchmark |
| Estimated Suite Candidates (local) | 24-72 | Calculated |
Supply/Demand Assessment
| Indicator | Finding | Conclusion |
|---|
| South Riding/Centreville supply | 0 suites | SEVERELY UNDERSUPPLIED |
| Nearest competitor | 4 miles (Sola Chantilly) | Not convenient for local professionals |
| Sola Chantilly status | New, leasing up (March 2025) | May absorb some demand but 48 suites for broader area |
| Sola corporate expansion | Validates market demand | GREEN signal for entry |
| Affluent demographics | $190K median HH income | Supports premium pricing |
Waitlist Analysis
| Competitor | Has Waitlist | Estimated Waitlist | Confidence |
|---|
| All direct competitors | UNKNOWN | Unknown | LOW |
Note: Unlike the initial market research where primary phone research confirmed waitlists, some competitor waitlist data has not been verified through direct calls. This is a research gap that should be addressed in pre-lease planning.
Market Balance Assessment
Is the Market Undersupplied or Oversupplied?
| Indicator | Finding | Conclusion |
|---|
| South Riding/Centreville supply | Zero suites | UNDERSUPPLIED |
| Sola corporate investment | 111 new suites in 2025 | DEMAND EXISTS |
| Salon Lofts expansion | 4 locations, including dual-location | DEMAND EXISTS |
| Geographic clustering | All operators in Chantilly/Sterling/Ashburn | SOUTH RIDING UNSERVED |
| Population without local option | 100,000+ residents | SIGNIFICANT GAP |
Conclusion: South Riding/Centreville corridor is UNDERSUPPLIED. No salon suite operator serves this population despite strong demographics and proven regional demand.
Where is Unmet Demand Concentrated?
| Segment | Unmet Demand Level | Evidence |
|---|
| South Riding residents | VERY HIGH | Zero local options, 4+ mile drive to nearest |
| Centreville residents | VERY HIGH | Zero local options, 71,885 population |
| Convenience-seekers | HIGH | Nearest options require 15-25 min drive |
| Independent-preferring | MEDIUM | Only 2 of 11 operators are independent |
| Premium segment | MEDIUM | $190K median HH supports high-end |
Implications for Market Entry
Room for New Supply?
| Question | Answer | Supporting Evidence |
|---|
| Is there room for new supply? | YES | Zero operators in South Riding/Centreville corridor |
| How much new supply? | 18-25 suites | Conservative entry for 100K+ underserved population |
| At what price? | $300-$400/week | Affluent demographics, no local price competition |
| Where? | South Riding preferred | Geographic monopoly, Centreville adjacency |
Optimal Entry Strategy Based on Supply/Demand
| Factor | Recommendation | Rationale |
|---|
| Facility Size | 18-25 suites | Right-sized for first-mover entry without oversupply risk |
| Pricing | $300-$400/week starting | Premium justified by affluent demographics and no local competition |
| Location | South Riding core | First and only salon suites in community |
| Timeline | Move quickly | Sola Chantilly is leasing up; capture demand before they stabilize |
| Pre-lease Target | 50-65% before opening | Conservative given unproven local market |
Segment Priority for New Entrant
| Priority | Segment | Strategy |
|---|
| 1 | South Riding/Centreville professionals | Geographic convenience, "finally, a local option" |
| 2 | Professionals seeking independence | Support services for those leaving traditional salons |
| 3 | Quality-seekers from franchises | Premium independent experience vs. franchise standardization |
| 4 | Overflow from Chantilly/Sterling | Capture professionals who find those areas too crowded or far |
Supply/Demand Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| South Riding/Centreville Market Status | UNDERSUPPLIED (zero operators) |
| Nearest Competition | 4 miles (Sola Chantilly, newly opened) |
| Estimated Local Demand | 24-72 suite candidates |
| Absorption Capacity | 18-25 new suites at premium pricing |
| Recommended Price Range | $300-$400/week |
| Optimal Entry Price | $325-$375/week (premium, affluent market) |
| Go/No-Go Signal | GREEN: Market supports new entry |
Matrix created: 2026-01-17
Data sources: Competitor websites, franchise directories, Google Maps, market research
Confidence: MEDIUM for facility data, LOW for pricing/occupancy (most operators do not disclose)
Supply/demand analysis added: 2026-01-17
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