Financial Projections

36-month revenue projections, expense forecasts, and break-even analysis.

Executive Summary

Luxa Salon Suites presents a financially sound business model with conservative projections demonstrating clear viability. The 18-suite facility achieves break-even at 62% occupancy, providing substantial cushion below the 85% target occupancy. Year 1 is a ramp-up period requiring working capital support, while Years 2-3 generate strong gross profits exceeding $56,000 annually with DSCR above 1.50x.


1. Financial Highlights Summary

MetricYear 1Year 2Year 3
Total Revenue$185,871$235,684$242,720
Operating Expenses$177,766$178,872$184,244
Gross Profit$8,105$56,812$58,476
Gross Margin4.4%24.1%24.1%
Average Occupancy68%85%85%
DSCR0.22x*1.54x1.59x

*Year 1 shortfall covered by $35,000 working capital reserve

Three-Year Cumulative Performance

Metric3-Year Total
Total Revenue$664,275
Total Operating Expenses$540,882
Cumulative Gross Profit$123,393
Average Gross Margin18.6%

2. Revenue Model

Revenue Source

All revenue is generated from weekly suite rentals to independent beauty professionals. The suite rental model provides predictable, recurring revenue with minimal collection risk due to weekly payment structure.

Suite Mix and Pricing

Suite TypeCountSize (SF)Weekly RateMonthly Rate*Annual Rate
Standard8100$325$1,407$16,884
Plus5130$365$1,581$18,972
Large3160$395$1,710$20,520
Executive2200$425$1,840$22,080
Total182,330---

*Monthly calculated as Weekly x 4.33 weeks

Blended Revenue Analysis

MetricValue
Blended Average Weekly Rate~$365/week
Blended Average Monthly Rate~$1,581/month
At 100% Occupancy$22,640/month ($271,680/year)
At 85% Occupancy$19,244/month ($230,928/year)
At 62% Occupancy (Break-even)$14,037/month ($168,444/year)

Pricing Rationale

Pricing is positioned at the value end of the local market while maintaining quality:

  • Competitor Range: Sola and Phenix $300-$375/week est.
  • Luxa Average: $365/week (competitive with mid-range competitor pricing)
  • Value Proposition: Premium soundproofing and amenities at competitive rates

3. Occupancy Projections

Base Case Assumptions

ParameterValue
Opening Occupancy35% (6-7 suites pre-leased)
Monthly Ramp Rate7% per month
Stabilization MonthMonth 9
Stabilized Occupancy85% (15.3 suites)
Break-even Occupancy62% (11 suites)

Month-by-Month Occupancy (Year 1)

MonthOccupancy %Suites OccupiedMonthly RevenueStatus
135%6.3$7,925Ramp-up
242%7.6$9,561Ramp-up
349%8.8$11,197Ramp-up
456%10.1$12,706Ramp-up
563%11.3$14,215Break-even reached
670%12.6$15,848Cash-flow positive
777%13.9$17,481Growing
884%15.1$19,002Near target
985%15.3$19,244Target reached
1085%15.3$19,244Stabilized
1185%15.3$19,244Stabilized
1285%15.3$19,244Stabilized

Occupancy Assumptions Justification

  1. 35% Opening: Conservative estimate based on 4-month pre-opening marketing period
  2. 7% Monthly Ramp: Achievable with targeted marketing and geographic gap demand capture
  3. 85% Stabilization: Industry standard for mature salon suites facilities
  4. Cushion: 23-point buffer above 62% break-even provides margin of safety

4. Operating Expenses

Monthly Operating Cost Summary

CategoryMonthlyAnnual% of Total
Occupancy (rent/NNN)$9,500$114,00064.1%
Utilities$625$7,5004.2%
Insurance$400$4,8002.7%
Maintenance/Reserve$1,800$21,60012.1%
Common Area$950$11,4006.4%
Administrative$800$9,6005.4%
Turnover Reserve$750$9,0005.1%
Total$14,825$177,900100%

Expense Category Details

Occupancy Costs ($114,000/year)

  • Base Rent: $7,000/month (~$28/SF gross)
  • NNN/CAM: $2,500/month (~$10/SF)
  • Committed regardless of vacancy level

Utilities ($7,500/year)

  • Electric, gas, water included in tenant rent
  • Base load: $375/month
  • Variable component scales with occupancy

Insurance ($4,800/year)

  • General Liability: $3,000/year ($1M/$2M policy)
  • Property Insurance: $1,800/year (based on $300K build-out value)

Maintenance & Reserve ($21,600/year)

  • Routine Maintenance: $14,400/year
  • Capital Reserve: $7,200/year (increased to $12,000 in Year 2)
  • Covers equipment replacement, unexpected repairs

Common Area ($11,400/year)

  • Janitorial/Cleaning: $6,000/year
  • Supplies: $1,800/year
  • Laundry Operations: $1,800/year
  • Break Room: $1,800/year

Administrative ($9,600/year)

  • Software/Systems: $3,600/year
  • Accounting/Legal: $3,000/year
  • Marketing (ongoing): $1,800/year
  • Miscellaneous: $1,200/year

Turnover Reserve ($9,000/year)

  • Budgeted for tenant transition costs
  • Average turnover cost: $2,428/suite
  • Assumes 20% annual turnover rate (3.6 turnovers)

5. Pro Forma Income Statement (3 Years)

Year 1 Monthly Detail

Line ItemM1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12Y1 Total
Revenue
Rental Income$7,925$9,561$11,197$12,706$14,215$15,848$17,481$19,002$19,244$19,244$19,244$19,244$184,911
Admin/Late Fees$50$50$60$70$75$80$85$90$100$100$100$100$960
Total Revenue$7,975$9,611$11,257$12,776$14,290$15,928$17,566$19,092$19,344$19,344$19,344$19,344$185,871
Operating Expenses
Occupancy$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$114,000
Utilities$438$473$509$548$586$625$663$700$706$706$706$706$7,366
Insurance$400$400$400$400$400$400$400$400$400$400$400$400$4,800
Maintenance$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,800$21,600
Common Area$950$950$950$950$950$950$950$950$950$950$950$950$11,400
Administrative$800$800$800$800$800$800$800$800$800$800$800$800$9,600
Turnover Reserve$750$750$750$750$750$750$750$750$750$750$750$750$9,000
Total Operating$14,638$14,673$14,709$14,748$14,786$14,825$14,863$14,900$14,906$14,906$14,906$14,906$177,766
Gross Profit($6,663)($5,062)($3,452)($1,972)($496)$1,103$2,703$4,192$4,438$4,438$4,438$4,438$8,105
Gross Margin %-84%-53%-31%-15%-3%7%15%22%23%23%23%23%4.4%

Year 2-3 Annual Summary

Line ItemYear 1Year 2Year 33-Year Total
Revenue
Rental Income$184,911$234,484$241,520$660,915
Admin/Late Fees$960$1,200$1,200$3,360
Total Revenue$185,871$235,684$242,720$664,275
Operating Expenses
Occupancy Costs$114,000$114,000$117,420$345,420
Utilities$7,366$8,472$8,728$24,566
Insurance$4,800$4,800$4,944$14,544
Maintenance$21,600$21,600$22,248$65,448
Common Area$11,400$11,400$11,744$34,544
Administrative$9,600$9,600$9,888$29,088
Turnover Reserve$9,000$9,000$9,272$27,272
Total Operating$177,766$178,872$184,244$540,882
Gross Profit$8,105$56,812$58,476$123,393
Gross Margin %4.4%24.1%24.1%18.6%

6. Break-Even Analysis

Break-Even Occupancy

MetricValue
Fixed Monthly Costs$13,942
Variable Cost per Suite~$636
Revenue per Suite$1,258
Break-Even Point62% occupancy (11 suites)

Break-Even by Occupancy Level

OccupancySuites FilledMonthly RevenueMonthly CostsGross ProfitStatus
50%9.0$11,320$14,688($3,368)Loss
55%9.9$12,452$14,735($2,283)Loss
60%10.8$13,584$14,783($1,199)Loss
62%11.2$14,037$14,816($779)Near Break-even
65%11.7$14,716$14,850($134)Minimal Loss
67%12.1$15,169$14,878$291Break-even
70%12.6$15,848$14,903$945Profitable
75%13.5$16,980$14,953$2,027Profitable
80%14.4$18,112$15,003$3,109Profitable
85%15.3$19,244$15,050$4,194Target
90%16.2$20,376$15,100$5,276Optimal

Break-Even Timeline (Base Case)

MilestoneMonthOccupancyNotes
Monthly Break-evenMonth 670%First month with positive gross profit
Cumulative Break-evenMonth 1185%Recovered all ramp-up losses
Maximum Cash DeficitMonth 563%($17,645) cumulative

7. Debt Service Coverage

Annual DSCR Summary

YearGross ProfitAnnual Debt ServiceDSCRSBA Minimum (1.25x)
1$8,105$36,7680.22x*Below - covered by WC
2$56,812$36,7681.54xPASS (+23%)
3$58,476$36,7681.59xPASS (+27%)

*Year 1 debt service shortfall of approximately $28,663 is covered by $35,000 working capital reserve, leaving $6,337 cushion for unexpected needs.

DSCR by Occupancy Level (Years 2-3)

OccupancyAnnual Gross ProfitAnnual Debt ServiceDSCRStatus
70%$11,340$36,7680.31xBelow threshold
75%$24,420$36,7680.66xBelow threshold
80%$37,392$36,7681.02xBelow threshold
82%$46,100$36,7681.25xSBA minimum
85%$56,812$36,7681.54xTarget
90%$67,092$36,7681.82xStrong coverage
95%$77,988$36,7682.12xExcellent coverage

8. Cash Flow Projection

Year 1 Monthly Cash Flow

MonthRevenueExpensesNet CashCumulative
M1$7,975$14,638($6,663)($6,663)
M2$9,611$14,673($5,062)($11,725)
M3$11,257$14,709($3,452)($15,177)
M4$12,776$14,748($1,972)($17,149)
M5$14,290$14,786($496)($17,645)
M6$15,928$14,825$1,103($16,542)
M7$17,566$14,863$2,703($13,839)
M8$19,092$14,900$4,192($9,647)
M9$19,344$14,906$4,438($5,209)
M10$19,344$14,906$4,438($771)
M11$19,344$14,906$4,438$3,667
M12$19,344$14,906$4,438$8,105

Key Milestones:

  • Maximum Cash Deficit: Month 5 at ($17,645) cumulative
  • Working Capital Bridge Required: $35,000 (covers deficit + buffer)
  • Cumulative Break-even: Month 11

Cash Flow After Debt Service

YearGross ProfitDebt ServiceCash Before Owner Draw
1$8,105$36,768($28,663)*
2$56,812$36,768$20,044
3$58,476$36,768$21,708

*Covered by working capital reserve


9. Key Assumptions

Revenue Assumptions

AssumptionValueRationale
Suite pricing$325-$425/weekCompetitive with local market (Sola/Phenix $300-$375 est.)
Opening occupancy35%6 suites pre-leased through marketing
Ramp rate7%/monthBased on competitor lease-up patterns
Stabilized occupancy85%Industry standard for mature facilities
Rent escalation3% annuallyMarket standard for commercial leases

Cost Assumptions

AssumptionValueRationale
Base occupancy cost$9,500/monthTarget per site selection criteria
Utility base/variable60%/40% splitIndustry standard
Operating cost inflation3% annuallyCPI projection
Turnover rate20% annuallyIndustry average
No owner salaryYears 1-3Owner-operated model

Financing Assumptions

AssumptionValueRationale
Loan amount$228,000Mid-range build-out estimate
Interest rate10.5%Conservative estimate (Prime + 3%)
Term10 yearsSBA 7(a) standard
Equity injection20%Exceeds SBA 10% minimum

10. Sensitivity Analysis

Impact of Occupancy Variation

ScenarioOccupancyAnnual Gross ProfitDSCRImpact
Conservative80%$37,3921.02xBelow SBA minimum
Base Case85%$56,8121.54xTarget
Optimistic90%$67,0921.82xStrong performance

Impact of Rent Variation (+/- 10%)

ScenarioBlended WeeklyAnnual Revenue (85%)Gross ProfitImpact on Margin
-10% Rent$284/week$212,116$33,244-$23,568 (-41.5%)
Base$365/week$235,684$56,812Base
+10% Rent$347/week$259,252$80,380+$23,568 (+41.5%)

Interest Rate Sensitivity

RateMonthly P&IAnnual Debt ServiceDSCR @ 85%Impact
10.0%$3,017$36,2041.57x+0.03x
10.5%$3,064$36,7681.54xBase
11.25%$3,151$37,8121.50x-0.04x
12.0%$3,266$39,1921.45x-0.09x

Finding: All modeled interest rate scenarios maintain DSCR above SBA minimum of 1.25x with adequate margin.

Combined Downside Scenario

VariableBase CaseDownsideCombined Impact
Occupancy85%80%
Rate10.5%12.0%
Gross Profit$56,812$37,392($19,420)
Debt Service$36,768$39,192($2,424)
DSCR1.54x0.95x(0.59x)

Conclusion: Combined downside scenario falls below SBA threshold. However, the 62% break-even occupancy and $35,000 working capital reserve provide substantial protection against this unlikely scenario.


Appendix: Supporting Schedules

A.1 Revenue by Suite Type at Stabilization (85%)

Suite TypeCountOccupied (85%)Weekly RateMonthly RevenueAnnual Revenue
Standard86.8$325$9,564$114,768
Plus54.25$365$6,721$80,652
Large32.55$395$4,361$52,332
Executive21.7$425$3,128$37,536
Total1815.3-$20,832$249,984

A.2 Per-Suite Profitability

Suite TypeMonthly RevenueMonthly CostsGross MarginMargin %
Standard$1,234$675$55945.3%
Plus$1,364$812$55240.5%
Large$1,494$949$54536.5%
Executive$1,667$1,131$53632.2%

Financial Projections prepared for SBA 7(a) Small Loan Application Luxa Salon Suites - Phase 14 Business Plan Assembly

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